IRGC and new sanctions!
On Tuesday, the US House of Representatives voted on a long-anticipated sanctions bill targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran along with Russia and North Korea. Progress on a previous version of the bill was delayed on procedural grounds after initially passing the Senate by a nearly unprecedented margin of 98-2.
Some Democrats the accused the Republican Party of stalling the bill as a result of objections from President Donald Trump regarding the Russia-related provisions and specifically the effort to constrain presidential authority to change enforcement mechanisms and suspend or eliminate the newly imposed sanctions at a later date. However, the Republican leadership of the House proceeded to introduce a virtually identical bill, which passed easily and is now expected to go to the Senate before the mid-August start of Congress’ summer break.
Despite lingering presidential objections to certain aspects of the bill, it seems to be generally expected that Trump will sign it into law since the extent of its bipartisan congressional support makes it veto-proof. In any event, there are no apparent points of disagreement between Congress and the White House over the Iran or North Korea-related provisions. And indeed, the new Iran sanctions are very much in keeping with the president’s pursuit of more assertive policies toward the Islamic Republic, which has been ongoing since he took office in January.
That effort has not been without its obstacles, though. Last week, Trump’s foreign policy advisors reportedly convinced him to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement negotiated by his predecessor. It was the second time that Trump provided such certification, which is due every 90 days, and he apparently did so begrudgingly in both instances.
Immediately after moving to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in force at the beginning of last week, the administration imposed new executive sanctions on 18 individuals and groups with ties to the Iranian ballistic missile program, its Revolutionary Guards-operated fast-attack boats, and reported instances of the theft of American software. Furthermore, the White House indicated that it would be undertaking a thorough review of overall US policy toward Iran. This is certain to keep interested parties watching closely in order to understand the emerging strategies and the ultimate goal that the Trump team has in mind.
While campaigning for office, Trump promised to tear up the nuclear agreement, which he described as “the worst deal ever negotiated.” But since taking office his administration has seemingly maintained a broader focus, as by putting Tehran “on notice” over its contributions to regional instability and urging the international community to make priorities of that and the Iranian ballistic missile program. The recent reporting on JCPOA certification suggests that the president is still anxious to follow through on his campaign promise, but not everyone who is critical of the previous administration’s handling of Iran policy believes this is the right approach.
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